Posts Tagged ‘economics’

The Delusion of Government as the Economy

Monday, April 5th, 2010

Yesterday, Alistair Darling and Lord Mandelson (on Today and Sky News respectively) both used the same phrase to explain their opposition to stopping the National Insurance increase. They both said that it would “take money out of the economy”.

Let’s examine that claim.

1. On what planet is giving money back to the people and the productive sector taking money out of the economy? Even Keynesians accept that taxes take money out of the economy. If Labour really believe that fiscal stimulus can “save the world”, why aren’t they applauding this fine action to stop money leaking out of the economy? Economy comes from the Greek οἰκία, meaning house. The economy is simply every household in the country put together. Put another way, the economy is the people.

2. Moreover, National Insurance is at heart an appallingly inefficient tax on jobs. We have very high unemployment in this country, especially once you take into account all the fiddles used to massage the numbers. What Labour proposed was to make it more expensive to hire people and keep people employed. Tory policy will now save and create jobs. Each of those people who wouldn’t have a job under Labour has income, and pays income tax. Each consumes more, and pay VAT. It’s entirely possible that even the Exchequer will benefit from this.

So, what does this episode tell us about Labour?

a) They are arrogant statists who believe that the Government IS the economy. Labour’s massive expansion of the public sector has made them believe that there’s nothing else out there, or that it doesn’t matter. They are no longer New Labour, willing to tolerate economic freedom for the sake of prosperity. They are now hard left Socialists – they extol central planning, compel private companies to go along with the plan (see the banks) and view the free private sector as a non-entity.

b) They don’t trust people to make their own decisions. People make mistakes – that’s the nature of freedom – but the failures of liberty are eclipsed by the failures of government.

c) They think that people are fools, and will be taken in by a claim that makes no sense even under lefty economics

This is why I am Conservative: I believe that the route to prosperity for all who want to attain it is through a largely unencumbered private sector, with government only intervening where an additional cost to wider society exists. I believe that people spend their own money in a way that’s better for the economy than central planning. I believe in liberty. Labour does not.

Cuts and Grazes

Friday, September 25th, 2009

It’s pretty much universally accepted that in order to bring down HUGE public sector borrowing (roughly 60% of GDP according to the OECD) the government needs to increase its bank balances, either by spending cuts or by raising taxes, or a combination thereof. I don’t pretend to understand macroeconomics and I’ll leave to to others to explain the risks of a huge national debt.

Yesterday I visited the Freshers’ Fair at the University of Huddersfield (to “help out”), and got into an argument with some malcontenet who accused the Conservatives of raising taxes (apparently ignoring the fact that we weren’t in power yet). Of course, tax rises may be necessary, but only if cuts in public spending have been exhausted – pared to the bone, so to speak. The word “cuts” may conjure up imagery of Mrs Thatcher snatching milk from schoolkids and tipping people out of hospital beds, but it might be better to visualise cuts as a surgical operation to remove a tumour. A tumour, incidentally, becomes malign when it starts invading other tissues and diverting essential blood supply in order to fuel its own growth – a fairly nice anaology of the civil service, I feel.

The TaxPayers’ Alliance (report) identified over £50 billion of savings that would be fairly painless to implement (and in anycase, chemotherapy is particularly harsh but usually better in the long-term). My favourites include: a one year pay freeze on the public sector (exl. servicemen) – saving: £6.2bn; abolishing education maintenance allowance – saving £530 million; slimming down the civil service by 10% - saving £1.2bn; and abolisihing Child Benefits and CTFs - saving £8 447 000 000. (See the tables below)

Admittedly, some of these cuts may seem harsh, and having handouts taken out of people’s hands would be very unpopular for any government. However, if Cameron wins the election and makes these tough decisions within his first year of office, the taxpayer (hopefully) would be weaned off dependency on the welfare state and come to appreciate his own responsibilities by the 2014/15 election. I theorised to myself on the bus yesterday that every £1 spent in the public sector stifles £x in the private sector – so making serious cuts in inefficient/unnecessary areas of spending should seriously stimulate commerce and industry into getting the economy moving again. Crucially, it is businesses that will bring us out of a recession, NOT the public sector.

Secondly, a note on tax rises. It might be tempting to, say, keep universal bus passes for the elderly in exchange for, maybe, another penny on corporation tax or a static NI threshold. Higher taxes stifle the economy, lower spending stimulates growth. The TPA report, for example, includes this factlet –  ”A study of EU15 and OECD countries from 1970 to 2004 by the European Central Bank found that a 1 percentage point increase in the tax/GDP ratio reduces output by 0.12 percentage points for the OECD countries and 0.13 percentage points for the EU countries.”

Lastly, a point of principle: the Government got itself into a mess by spending money it didn’t have. It is only right that the public sector should have the bear the burden of its mistakes, instead of punishing hard-working, over-regulated families and small businesses.

IOD-TPAtable1IOD-TPAtable2

 Note that none of these cuts involve reducing the numbers of staff in schools, hospitals, etc.

Why You’ve Never Heard of the Great Depression of 1920

Monday, July 13th, 2009

Abolishing interest has long been a leftist dream. Here is Thomas E. Woods, Jr explaining in laymen’s terms why stimulus spending prolongs recessions, why artificially low interest rates start and prolong recessions, and why anyone who thinks that economies need to be “stimulated” or that the problem with low interest rates is that they cause an economy to “overheat”, doesn’t know what they’re talking about.

It’s a longish video, but interesting and great fun to watch.

The Case for Doing Nothing

Saturday, July 11th, 2009

In February, James Sharpe wrote a defense of doing nothing about the financial crisis.

In March, I wrote about a lecture by Kevin Dowd on how using existing bankruptcy law would have been much better than bailing out the banks.

Now, here is an article by Professor Jeffrey A. Miron of Harvard. The professor is on sparkling form:

The first thing to note about the financial crisis is that the federal government never had any business intervening in the personal decision of whether you want to own a home. There is no rational economic argument, or any argument I know of, that says the market of buying and selling homes is imperfect in some way, requiring government action.

Miron then demolishes the arguments for bank bailouts, using sound economic principles.

The government didn’t need to get involved, either in the first place or to fix the problems it created. Existing law would have sorted it out.

http://www.reason.com/news/show/134483.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/07/10/the_case_for_doing_nothing_97382.html
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10342

The Cambridge Union is Proud of Margaret Thatcher

Friday, May 8th, 2009

Cambridge Union rightly voted in favour of the motion “This House is proud of Thatcher’s time as Prime Minister”. John Redwood, james-sharpe-in-the-chairPeter Lilley and Edward Leigh did a great job of standing up for Mrs Thatcher. Our own James Winfield Arthur Edward Sharpe III chaired the debate, resplendent in his white tie outfit. See him in action here.

Come discuss the result at PORT AND CHEESE on SATURDAY 9th MAY in the Green Room of Caius College. £6 for members else £8 .

Excerpt from John Redwood’s Blog:

“I said five things that I felt needed saying.

1. Margaret in office was always most concerned personally about people around her, supporting them in dredwood-speakingifficulties, writing notes to them at times of trouble and showing great courtesy. She would always ask what could the UK do to help whenever she heard of a tragedy anywhere in the world. She was the best boss I ever worked for.

2. She helped Ronnie Reagan win the Cold War. Surely it is good news that Eastern Europe has been liberated from the grip of communism? That was only possible because the Western alliance was resolute in the 1980s.

3. At home she introduced demcoracy to the Unions. She wanted Aurthur Scragill to ballot his members about a strike. His failure to do so split his Union, and represented a challenge to the legal authority of Parliament.

4. She allowed many more people to buy their own home, and shares in the business they worked for. She believed in empowering more people through ownership. She championed the worker and the saver against the vested interests of the establishment.redwood-replying

5. She taxed the rich more . She knew that if you set lower and more realistic rates of tax, the rich will come here, stay here, create jobs here. It worked. Mr Blair kept those rates. Mr Brown is changing them in a way which will damage both the country and his party.”

 

 

 

Coming Up:

CUCA Speaker Meetings are FREE and OPEN TO ALL

Owen Paterson (with CUIS)

Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland

-11th May  – Kennedy Room of CUS at 715.

Michael Howard 

Home Secretary ’93-’97 (crime down 18%); Party Leader ’03-’05 (seats up to 198); President of CUCA

12th May – Kennedy Room of CUS at 7pmmichaelhoward

For Dinner with our speakers afterwards, please contact the Chairman (hdpb2)

Creditcrunchy by Fergus McGhee

Friday, April 3rd, 2009

Creditcrunchy

A Cautionary Tale

~

Behold the Crunch of Credit!
That alliterative beast
Which skulks along Threadneedle Street
With violent caprice;
Which darkens every board room door,
And prowls about the trading floor,
Devouring Christmas bonuses;
Disturbing fiscal peace.

Beware the Crunch of Credit!
The debt that bites, the risks that catch!
Defaults of every size and sort
He’ll frumiously despatch!

Observe the Crunch of Credit
And his wicked weaponry.
The stocks have crashed, the LIBOR soars,
¡Negative equity!

Survey the Crunch of Credit:
How he slithers, how he writhes,
How he toppled with one subprime swipe
The fated Rock, the mighty Bear,
Brought low the Brothers Lehman,
Made the Scottish banks despair!

Perceive the Crunch of Credit,
And detect his subtle powers:
How he raised from rank obscurity
That mercurial Peston of ours.
Admire the bard’s concise adage
And prescience so stellar:
“The nature of bad news,” he wrote in truth,
“Infects the teller!”

And banks, in their lividity,
Sent copious liquidity
Careering through pecuniary pipelines.
Recapitalisation was on all the experts’ lips,
While the name of Keynes was whispered in the streets.
And so we took the plunge
And bailed them out, the bungling banks.
Each mortgage-backed security
We bought hold-to-maturity,
And now we must all hold on to our seats.

Eheu!
The Crunch of Credit
Hath another victim slain.
Just as we mourned the passing
Of the noble Woolworths chain
The news arrived of worse to come –
GM and Chrysler are undone!

Across that vast new continent
Exhausted cries of woe accrue;
Their answer is a distant, but distinct,
Bavarian “Juhu!”
And yet they have their problems too:
The market shrank, the Euro flew
As the glorious pound became less sound;
O what were we to do?

St Gordon took his sword in hand:
All boom and bust he’d soon disband.
Long time his manxome foe he sought –
So rested he by his brooding tree
And stood awhile in thought.

And as in dithering thought he stood,
The Credit Crunch, with eyes of flame,
Came whiffing through that tulgey wood,
And burbled as it came!

A spending spree, slashed V.A.T.
The fiscal blade went snicker-snack!
And though the sword was double-edged
It didn’t hold him back.

And at Westminster’s Palace
He arrived in prudent pomp,
And took to the despatch box
With a clunking-fisted thomp.

“Fear not,” said he (for mighty dread
Had seized their troubled minds);
“Glad tidings of great joy I bring
To you and all mankind.”

A silence grasped the chamber,
Every member was in thrall…
“For I have slain the Credit Crunch
And saved the world withal!”

And hast thou slain the Credit Crunch?
Come to my arms, my beamish boy!
O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!
The Dow Jones shall be up today!

What forces dark could explicate
These grand felicitations?
A Faustian pact, no less,
Bought with our future generations.

It was now clear the Saint had been
Trained in the School of Madoff,
And all men of good sense agree
It’s time that he was laid off.

But Gordon is not all to blame;
Some people bear a greater shame.
The problem, if you care to see,
Was monetary policy.

Who spawned the Crunch of Credit?
That ‘twas bankers still persists.
All true, but don’t forget
The scholarly economists.

The money in supply, M4 –
as it’s known in the trade –
Approximately doubled over that
Debtors’ decade.

The learned persons thus assembled
Knew this and lamented;
And yet, instead of raising rates
Accordingly, relented.
And as night follows day
They had unwittingly consented
To preconditioning
This boom and bust unprecedented.

But how now learned friends?
What weaponry are you possessed of?
Alchemical de-squeezing
Such as “quantitative easing”?
The Crunch of Credit scoffs
And, Calibanically gleaming,
Jeers, “Who are these pretenders
With their gyring, gimbling scheming?”

And lo! so sudden from the sky
A voice was heard to prophesy,
“Hark, ye mimsy banks!
Hark ye, thou uffish Premier!
Hearken all who hear the call
Of downturns and despair!
The reckless beast cannot be maimed
With instruments of recklessness.
No victory can yet be claimed
While mired in such a fecklessness.”

And choirs celestial sang the strain
Which plumbed the very azure main:
The words of our absolving shrift,
The ancient liturgy of thrift:
“Sumptus censum ne superet!”
Repeat it, pray, lest we forget:
“Sumptus censum ne superet!”

The Hellenistic world agreed:
“????? ????” they decreed.
And in the plain vernacular,
Micawber took the lead.

Yet howsoever it may be said,
How loud, how slow, how clearly read,
Let each without exception
Brand its meaning on his head.

And then, just when
We can say Amen!
To being in the black,
We’ll go anew galumphing
To spend what we don’t lack.

~

(with grateful acknowledgements to Mr Lewis Carroll)

Abolish the minimum wage

Thursday, April 2nd, 2009

There are some things which few people will thank you for saying, but still need to be said. There are some statements which will lose a politician more votes than they gain him, but still need to be said.

As Sean Gabb says in “Free Life Commentary”:

“A political leader, as opposed to a demagogue, has a duty to listen, but also to educate. This means on occasion resisting the will of the majority. It means the sort of patient explanation of truth that I last saw in the early 1980s, when several dozen Conservatives, in or out of office, went about the country telling often hostile audiences why the calls for reflation had to be resisted.”

One thing that needs to be explained is the badness of the minimum wage. Just as any price-fixing will cause a shortage or a surplus, the minimum wage causes unemployment (a surplus of labour). There are some people whose labour is simply not worth the minimum wage. With minimum wage laws, they will never get a job. To believe otherwise is to believe that government can legislate against the laws of economics. But governments can no more do that than they can legislate against the laws of physics.

Of course, if a minimum wage is brought in at £5/hour, not everyone previously earning less than £5/hour will suddenly lose their jobs. Like most political decisions, some people benefit from it, and some people lose out. But there are plenty of tasks which are simply not worth paying for at that cost. Various jobs are destroyed, and plenty of people do become unemployed. The government know this, of course, which is why there are different minimum wages in the UK for those aged 22 and above (£5.73), those aged between 18 and 21 (£4.77), and those younger than 18 (£3.53). Most under-18s are not skilled enough for their labour to be worth the adult minimum wage. Rather than see even more unemployment, the government created a tiered minimum wage. But it is not the case that the labour of everyone in any particular age band is worth the same. There are plenty of adults (currently unemployed) aged over 22 whose labour is worth less than £3.53/hour. Rather than differentiating by age, we should differentiate between each individual. But that would mean abolishing the minimum wage. This clearly demonstrates that the minimum wage was created for reasons of political popularity, despite the clear economic argument against it.

A good way to see why minimum wages are bad is to ponder why the minimum wage is currently £5.73.

In this clip from the BBC’s “Politics Show”, a woman says “I’ll vote Labour if they put the minimum wage up to £8″. Why isn’t it £8/hour? Or indeed £20/hour?

Perhaps this woman was on minimum wage. It’s hardly surprising that someone would turn to a politician for a pay rise when they couldn’t get it from their boss. However, raising the legal minimum wage to £8/hour would certainly have the unintended consequence of lowering this person’s actual wage to £0. Rather than increasing their income, they would become unemployed as a result of such a policy.

On Thursday 6th November 2008, in the annual “No Confidence” debate at the Union, Oliver Letwin was asked, “Why did you vote against the minimum wage?” It didn’t seem to have occurred to the questioner that there could be any good reason for opposing a minimum wage. Mr Letwin replied that he had been responsible for changing Conservative policy on the minimum wage “because we were wrong about it. It turned out not to price people out of jobs the way we thought it would. The reason we were sceptical about it is because we thought it would price people out of jobs… I hope, I trust, that it’s not going to rise to a level where it does that in a recession.”

Mr Letwin is wrong that the minimum wage has not priced people out of jobs. Indeed, now that we are in a recession, it is surely responsible for even more unemployment. The reason the minimum wage is not £8/hour is because that would cause more unemployment. So the choice for a politician when setting the level of the minimum wage is: How much unemployment do you want? Unemployment will never be minimised as long as minimum wage legislation remains in force.

Lowering or abolishing the minimum wage is of increased importance at the moment, because lowering wages is essential to ending recessions.

“It is common and indeed conventional knowledge that only World War II ended the Depression… What is less often acknowledged is that the New Deal as such thus failed to end to the Depression. Nor is it generally understood why the Depression did not return in 1946, after the military was demobilized and war production ended. By all rights, nothing should have been any different from 1939. But the Depression did not return. Despite demobilization and the end of war production, unemployment in 1946 was 3.9% and in 1947 3.9%…

So why didn’t the Depression return in 1946? Because wages were frozen even while the money supply was inflated with the war spending. This drove down real wages, the opposite of the consistent policy of Hoover and Roosevelt for a decade to drive up wages. In 1946, wages were low enough to clear the employment market. If employers could then hire workers at a market wage, and produce consumer goods, business could get back to normal. It did.”

However,

Dave Prentis, general secretary of Unison, will cut a special cake in the Commons to celebrate the anniversary, saying that the current £5.73 an hour rate should increase to £7.45 by October 2010.

The union also wants apprentices to be covered by the minimum wage, adding that the “development rate” for younger workers should be scrapped as it “discriminated” against young people.

As Tim Worstall puts it,

Are these people mad? A 30% pay rise in the middle of a recession? When people are shedding labour left, right and centre, you’re going to make labour more expensive?

The minimum wage is a blunt instrument. Prices are information, and setting prices (including wages) distorts the market, preventing it from solving the economic calculation problem and allocating resources efficiently. Just as we don’t set prices, we shouldn’t set wages.

The minimum wage is unfortunately popular amongst many people that it harms. If you want to redistribute wealth, which is what the minimum wage tries to do, a negative income tax would be a far more effective method.

[un]Fairtrade

Tuesday, March 3rd, 2009

It’s probably a little lazy of me to just post a link. However, I feel quite strongly about Fairtrade being a BAD IDEA and failing to properly address its aims and intentions.

The Adam Smith Institute (ASI) have written a critique of Fairtrade.

Here’s the Executive Summary:

  • Fairtrade Fortnight is a marketing exercise intended to maintain the Fairtrade mark’s predominance in an increasingly competitive marketplace for ethically-branded products. The hype is necessary, because there is every reason for the shrewd consumer to make other choices.
  • Fair trade is unfair. It offers only a very small number of farmers a higher, fixed price for their goods. These higher prices come at the expense of the great majority of farmers, who — unable to qualify for Fairtrade certification — are left even worse off.
  • Most of the farmers helped by Fairtrade are in Mexico, a relatively developed country, and not in places like Ethiopia.
  • Fair trade does not aid economic development. It operates to keep the poor in their place, sustaining uncompetitive farmers on their land and holding back diversification, mechanization, and moves up the value chain. This denies future generations the chance of a better life.
  • Fair trade only helps landowners, not the agricultural labourers who suffer the severest poverty. Indeed, Fairtrade rules deny labourers the opportunity of permanent, full-time employment.
  • Four-fifths of the produce sold by Fairtrade-certified farmers ends up in non-Fairtrade goods. At the same time, it is possible that many goods sold as Fairtrade might not actually be Fairtrade at all.
  • Just 10% of the premium consumers pay for Fairtrade actually goes to the producer. Retailers pocket the rest.
  • The consumer now has a wide variety of ethical alternatives to Fairtrade, many of which represent more effective ways to fight poverty, increase the poor’s standard of living and aid economic development.
  • Fairtrade arose from the coffee crisis of the 1990s. This was not a free market failure. Governments tried to rig the market through the International Coffee Agreement and subsidized over-plantation with the encouragement of well-meaning but misguided aid agencies. The crash in prices was the inevitable result of this government intervention, but coffee prices have largely recovered since then.
  • Free trade is the most effective poverty reduction strategy the world has ever seen. If we really want to aid international development we should abolish barriers to trade in the rich world, and persuade the developing world to do the same. The evidence is clear: fair trade is unfair, but free trade makes you rich.

Economic and historical ignorance

Saturday, February 28th, 2009

George Owers of the Labour Club has an article in this week’s Varsity. I don’t wish to make this ad hominem, but his article is a such farrago of his typical economic and historical ignorance (not to mention rudeness) that I hardly know where to start. How about a good old-fashioned fisking?

Mr Sharpe does not address the fact that if the state had followed his prescriptions over the past two years and left the market to determine the fate of the actors within the world economic system, then it is improbable that there would be a financial sector left by now. When the US government let just one financial institution go bankrupt, namely Lehman Brothers, the resulting panic and market turbulence came close to collapsing the entire financial system. If the market had been allowed to determine the fate of every such troubled institution, the resulting carnage would have been the financial equivalent of a thermonuclear apocalypse.

On the contrary, there would be a financial sector left. Lehman Brothers did not come close to “collapsing the entire financial system”. It is simply not possible for everyone to go bankrupt. For every debtors there is a creditor, and vice versa. The financial sector might become smaller, requiring the dynamic “carnage” or “creative destruction” that any economic restructuring requires. And that might be a good thing. Leftism is essentially a collection of static doctrines, seeking to eliminate all risk, preferring stagnant security to dynamic change. That’s why people like Mr Owers chase after utopias like “full employment” where no one ever loses their job.

The same applies if governments around the world had not re-capitalised the banks (as suggested by Gordon Brown). The state is too enmeshed in economic life to simply withdraw at a stroke without massive consequences. In fact, if anything, only more emergency state action can save us. Most responsible economists realise that the only way to get the banks lending again is to nationalise the entire banking system now.

Crikey, that’s not even close to true. Not even the (actually irresponsible) neo-Keynesians that Owers adores advocate nationalising the banks.

Mr Owers is correct that if all the banks were nationalised they could be forced to start lending again. But that would be A Bad Thing. Indeed, nationalised Northern Rock already have been forced by the government to start lending again. “Chancellor Alistair Darling also suggested that some mortgages would be lent at up to 90% of the value of the property being bought”. That’s on top of the 10% bonuses they just received. And despite falling house prices putting these people at risk of going into negative equity.

Gordon Brown even wants to ban 100% mortgages, though he did once offer them himself through “HomeBuyDirect”. As Guido says, “No deposit was required, and it didn’t matter if you could not afford to repay the full cost of a mortgage for the property. Low-income earners were effectively encouraged by the government to buy over-priced new builds.”

No bank should be forced to lend money. Banks lend money to make a profit, and will do so at an interest rate that takes into account the risk of default. That’s why the government has been unsuccessful in getting to banks to lower interest rates as much as the Bank of England’s rate. The Bank of England’s rate is essentially a number plucked out of thin air, whereas commercial banks have to take into account risk.

Why does Mr Owers want banks to lend more? Because he believes that the economy is driven by spending: by consumption, not production. This is false. On the contrary, real growth is made by producing things. Houses changing hands will not create prosperity out of nothing.

Nationalising the banks would cost the taxpayer even more enormous amounts of money for no good reason. It would simply be a transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich, from the prudent to the imprudent.

Contrary to Mr Sharpe’s assertions, this catastrophe is the result of a dumb faith in the efficient market hypothesis, and only a result of the failure of the state insofar as the state did not act more firmly to prevent such madness.

Contrary to Mr Owers’ assertions, this catastrophe is the result of pervasive government intervention in the market for years. No one believes that markets clear instantly or that people have perfect information. But you don’t have to believe that to believe that the market would be a lot more efficient if we had a market-set interest rate and no central bank able to inflate the currency. Then the interest rate would reflect people’s time-preferences, capital would be allocated more efficiently, and knowledge about the changes in relative prices would not be drowned out in general price increases.

This catastrophe was not caused be a free market, because we didn’t and don’t have one.

Actors in a market are not rational calculating machines able to use data to efficiently determine the optimum allocation of resources. They are often driven by irrational exuberance, which leads to insane speculative bubbles that can destabilise the real economy. Surely that is apparent to everyone by now. The British Conservative Party seems to be just about the only institution in the entire world that attributes the current crisis to too little marketisation rather than too much. Only by state action to regulate economic activity can we manage these risks and prevent periodic financial crises.

The thing is, when speculators are successful, they make the market more efficient. Short-sellers contribute to the market signals which help reduce the price of over-valued things, for example. But when speculators do not help to make the market more efficient, they lose money. The market checks them.

I do not deny that speculation played a part in the recent bubble. But what caused speculation? Bubbles always pop. In a free market, they pop sooner rather than later. What allows bubbles to reach catastrophic proportions? Cheap credit, provided by the government. The solution is to abolish the Bank of England, and go back to a market-set (higher) interest rate. The solution is to prevent the government from fuelling bubbles through inflation. (A low interest rate doesn’t just cause isolated bubbles, such as house prices. It wrecks the whole economy by causing misallocation of resources on a massive scale.)

The regulators didn’t prevent this crisis, and the government encouraged it.

The hard empirical evidence for this truth exists – it’s called the past.

As far as I can tell from speaking to him, Mr Owers’ only knowledge of the Great Depression comes from reading the crypto-socialist John Kenneth Galbraith, and he believes that the Great Depression was caused entirely by speculation. The past doesn’t back him up, though. Before the era of central banking, widespread depressions did not occur, and indeed could not occur.

From 1945 until the 1970s the world had a well-regulated financial system operating within the framework of the Bretton-Woods settlement.

And what happened to Bretton Woods in ’71? Mr Owers has a curious set of historical blind spots. On the contrary, Bretton Woods was an insane system of price controls, which required governments to pour money into the black hole of maintaining arbitrary exchange rates. A bit like the ERM. It was doomed to failure. It was tested to destruction and eventually collapsed, taking the gold standard with it.

I don’t mean to be rude, but in conversations with Mr Owers and others, it is apparent that he knows no economics. He should go away and learn some.

In Defence of Doing Nothing

Saturday, February 21st, 2009

This article originally appeared in Varsity (Issue 691, Friday 20th February 2009).

In Defence of Doing Nothing
Inaction is the best way to deal with this recession

In the 1983 film War Games, the WOPR computer is about deploy the USA’s entire nuclear deterrent to destroy the Soviet Union. However, it is tricked into playing a game of Noughts and Crosses. Eventually the WOPR is forced to conclude that, since two good players have as much chance of beating each other in a game of Noughts and Crosses as in a nuclear war, the best move is to do nothing.

Unfortunately, however, there is always a problem with doing nothing: someone, somewhere, always thinks that something should be done. And so we had the arms race. Inevitably, if there is a perceived crisis and you do nothing about it, you’re accused of being shortsighted, naïve, or even heartless.

Faced with the current economic crisis, the gut reaction has been to throw money at the problem. But, just as the arms race did not alleviate the Cold War, the bail-out has not got the financial system moving again. Indeed, is it in our interests to prevent the crisis?

The current crisis is necessary in order to correct an overvalued market; and by keeping credit going, the market is going to remain overvalued. Instead of getting out of crisis, this is merely going to prolong it. Besides, liquidity only works if people have the confidence to use the money. Why else has Alistair Darling’s economic bail-out not worked?

Of course, this has not stopped the Labour Party persisting under the delusion that doing something, no matter how ineffective or costly, is innately laudable. The ‘do nothing Tories’ mantra is a common insult. But what is the value of doing something that will not help?

David Cameron and the Conservative Party come from the classical liberal tradition that the market will correct itself and that (most) public intervention within that market will be ineffective at best and damaging at worst. The Conservative Party is derided for not having any policies. But to let the market run itself is a policy. To become a credible alternative rather than simply an opposition, the Conservative Party needs to construct a narrative against prevailing attitudes.

After all, it can be argued that the only reason that the current crisis has developed is because of government action over the past twenty years or so. It was the government (albeit a Conservative one) that turned building societies into banks. It was the government (albeit an American one) that forced banks to lend to people with no assets and poor credit ratings. And it was the government (a Labour one) acting through the Bank of England that has kept interest rates artificially low for the past decade.

The problem is, however, that it is exceedingly difficult for the Conservative Party to claim that doing nothing with regards to the economic crisis is actually the best course of action. Obviously the Conservative Party does not think that absolutely nothing should be done. It is agreed that the most vulnerable — those likely to fall through the cracks of poverty — need to be protected. But when it comes to keeping credit moving they are less enthusiastic.

In the world of modern politics, doing nothing is not an option. Whatever the problem may be, no matter how small or insignificant, the government is expected to deal with it. What can an MP do about someone who throws a cigarette butt in the park? Should the government really take responsibility for what every parent feeds their child? If an adult prefers to sit at home and watch television rather than going out and exercising, who cares? And yet thousands of words are wasted and gallons of ink spilled dealing with precisely these issues.

The economy is slightly more important. Nevertheless, although the call for inaction may seem heartless, in the current crisis it is not. It will allow the market to recover quickly and efficiently, and allow the government to focus on helping the individuals adversely a affected by the crisis rather than worrying about a global market which is, frankly, too big for it to control. To think that anyone can end boom and bust is ludicrous.

But, then again, the tide is already turning. In the wake of the failure of the first economic bail-out, the Labour Party is increasingly behind in the polls. Indeed, senior Labourites like Tony Blair’s former aide Benjamin Wegg-Prosser are urging Gordon Brown to drop the ‘do nothing Tories’ attack line. It seems that people may, after all, be willing to give doing nothing a try.