Posts Tagged ‘economics’

The Cambridge Union is Proud of Margaret Thatcher

Friday, May 8th, 2009

Cambridge Union rightly voted in favour of the motion “This House is proud of Thatcher’s time as Prime Minister”. John Redwood, james-sharpe-in-the-chairPeter Lilley and Edward Leigh did a great job of standing up for Mrs Thatcher. Our own James Winfield Arthur Edward Sharpe III was in the chair, quite beautifully.

Come discuss the result at PORT AND CHEESE on SATURDAY 9th MAY in the Green Room of Caius College. £6 for members else £8 .

Excerpt from John Redwood’s Blog:

“I said five things that I felt needed saying.

1. Margaret in office was always most concerned personally about people around her, supporting them in dredwood-speakingifficulties, writing notes to them at times of trouble and showing great courtesy. She would always ask what could the UK do to help whenever she heard of a tragedy anywhere in the world. She was the best boss I ever worked for.

2. She helped Ronnie Reagan win the Cold War. Surely it is good news that Eastern Europe has been liberated from the grip of communism? That was only possible because the Western alliance was resolute in the 1980s.

3. At home she introduced demcoracy to the Unions. She wanted Aurthur Scragill to ballot his members about a strike. His failure to do so split his Union, and represented a challenge to the legal authority of Parliament.

4. She allowed many more people to buy their own home, and shares in the business they worked for. She believed in empowering more people through ownership. She championed the worker and the saver against the vested interests of the establishment.redwood-replying

5. She taxed the rich more . She knew that if you set lower and more realistic rates of tax, the rich will come here, stay here, create jobs here. It worked. Mr Blair kept those rates. Mr Brown is changing them in a way which will damage both the country and his party.”

Coming Up:

CUCA Speaker Meetings are FREE and OPEN TO ALL

Owen Paterson (with CUIS)

Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland

-11th May  - Kennedy Room of CUS at 715.

Michael Howard 

Home Secretary ‘93-’97 (crime down 18%); Party Leader ‘03-’05 (seats up to 198); President of CUCA

12th May - Kennedy Room of CUS at 7pmmichaelhoward

For Dinner with our speakers afterwards, please contact the Chairman (hdpb2)

Creditcrunchy by Fergus McGhee

Friday, April 3rd, 2009

Creditcrunchy

A Cautionary Tale

~

Behold the Crunch of Credit!
That alliterative beast
Which skulks along Threadneedle Street
With violent caprice;
Which darkens every board room door,
And prowls about the trading floor,
Devouring Christmas bonuses;
Disturbing fiscal peace.

Beware the Crunch of Credit!
The debt that bites, the risks that catch!
Defaults of every size and sort
He’ll frumiously despatch!

Observe the Crunch of Credit
And his wicked weaponry.
The stocks have crashed, the LIBOR soars,
¡Negative equity!

Survey the Crunch of Credit:
How he slithers, how he writhes,
How he toppled with one subprime swipe
The fated Rock, the mighty Bear,
Brought low the Brothers Lehman,
Made the Scottish banks despair!

Perceive the Crunch of Credit,
And detect his subtle powers:
How he raised from rank obscurity
That mercurial Peston of ours.
Admire the bard’s concise adage
And prescience so stellar:
“The nature of bad news,” he wrote in truth,
“Infects the teller!”

And banks, in their lividity,
Sent copious liquidity
Careering through pecuniary pipelines.
Recapitalisation was on all the experts’ lips,
While the name of Keynes was whispered in the streets.
And so we took the plunge
And bailed them out, the bungling banks.
Each mortgage-backed security
We bought hold-to-maturity,
And now we must all hold on to our seats.

Eheu!
The Crunch of Credit
Hath another victim slain.
Just as we mourned the passing
Of the noble Woolworths chain
The news arrived of worse to come –
GM and Chrysler are undone!

Across that vast new continent
Exhausted cries of woe accrue;
Their answer is a distant, but distinct,
Bavarian “Juhu!”
And yet they have their problems too:
The market shrank, the Euro flew
As the glorious pound became less sound;
O what were we to do?

St Gordon took his sword in hand:
All boom and bust he’d soon disband.
Long time his manxome foe he sought –
So rested he by his brooding tree
And stood awhile in thought.

And as in dithering thought he stood,
The Credit Crunch, with eyes of flame,
Came whiffing through that tulgey wood,
And burbled as it came!

A spending spree, slashed V.A.T.
The fiscal blade went snicker-snack!
And though the sword was double-edged
It didn’t hold him back.

And at Westminster’s Palace
He arrived in prudent pomp,
And took to the despatch box
With a clunking-fisted thomp.

“Fear not,” said he (for mighty dread
Had seized their troubled minds);
“Glad tidings of great joy I bring
To you and all mankind.”

A silence grasped the chamber,
Every member was in thrall…
“For I have slain the Credit Crunch
And saved the world withal!”

And hast thou slain the Credit Crunch?
Come to my arms, my beamish boy!
O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!
The Dow Jones shall be up today!

What forces dark could explicate
These grand felicitations?
A Faustian pact, no less,
Bought with our future generations.

It was now clear the Saint had been
Trained in the School of Madoff,
And all men of good sense agree
It’s time that he was laid off.

But Gordon is not all to blame;
Some people bear a greater shame.
The problem, if you care to see,
Was monetary policy.

Who spawned the Crunch of Credit?
That ‘twas bankers still persists.
All true, but don’t forget
The scholarly economists.

The money in supply, M4 –
as it’s known in the trade –
Approximately doubled over that
Debtors’ decade.

The learned persons thus assembled
Knew this and lamented;
And yet, instead of raising rates
Accordingly, relented.
And as night follows day
They had unwittingly consented
To preconditioning
This boom and bust unprecedented.

But how now learned friends?
What weaponry are you possessed of?
Alchemical de-squeezing
Such as “quantitative easing”?
The Crunch of Credit scoffs
And, Calibanically gleaming,
Jeers, “Who are these pretenders
With their gyring, gimbling scheming?”

And lo! so sudden from the sky
A voice was heard to prophesy,
“Hark, ye mimsy banks!
Hark ye, thou uffish Premier!
Hearken all who hear the call
Of downturns and despair!
The reckless beast cannot be maimed
With instruments of recklessness.
No victory can yet be claimed
While mired in such a fecklessness.”

And choirs celestial sang the strain
Which plumbed the very azure main:
The words of our absolving shrift,
The ancient liturgy of thrift:
“Sumptus censum ne superet!”
Repeat it, pray, lest we forget:
“Sumptus censum ne superet!”

The Hellenistic world agreed:
“????? ????” they decreed.
And in the plain vernacular,
Micawber took the lead.

Yet howsoever it may be said,
How loud, how slow, how clearly read,
Let each without exception
Brand its meaning on his head.

And then, just when
We can say Amen!
To being in the black,
We’ll go anew galumphing
To spend what we don’t lack.

~

(with grateful acknowledgements to Mr Lewis Carroll)

Abolish the minimum wage

Thursday, April 2nd, 2009

There are some things which few people will thank you for saying, but still need to be said. There are some statements which will lose a politician more votes than they gain him, but still need to be said.

As Sean Gabb says in “Free Life Commentary”:

“A political leader, as opposed to a demagogue, has a duty to listen, but also to educate. This means on occasion resisting the will of the majority. It means the sort of patient explanation of truth that I last saw in the early 1980s, when several dozen Conservatives, in or out of office, went about the country telling often hostile audiences why the calls for reflation had to be resisted.”

One thing that needs to be explained is the badness of the minimum wage. Just as any price-fixing will cause a shortage or a surplus, the minimum wage causes unemployment (a surplus of labour). There are some people whose labour is simply not worth the minimum wage. With minimum wage laws, they will never get a job. To believe otherwise is to believe that government can legislate against the laws of economics. But governments can no more do that than they can legislate against the laws of physics.

Of course, if a minimum wage is brought in at £5/hour, not everyone previously earning less than £5/hour will suddenly lose their jobs. Like most political decisions, some people benefit from it, and some people lose out. But there are plenty of tasks which are simply not worth paying for at that cost. Various jobs are destroyed, and plenty of people do become unemployed. The government know this, of course, which is why there are different minimum wages in the UK for those aged 22 and above (£5.73), those aged between 18 and 21 (£4.77), and those younger than 18 (£3.53). Most under-18s are not skilled enough for their labour to be worth the adult minimum wage. Rather than see even more unemployment, the government created a tiered minimum wage. But it is not the case that the labour of everyone in any particular age band is worth the same. There are plenty of adults (currently unemployed) aged over 22 whose labour is worth less than £3.53/hour. Rather than differentiating by age, we should differentiate between each individual. But that would mean abolishing the minimum wage. This clearly demonstrates that the minimum wage was created for reasons of political popularity, despite the clear economic argument against it.

A good way to see why minimum wages are bad is to ponder why the minimum wage is currently £5.73.

In this clip from the BBC’s “Politics Show”, a woman says “I’ll vote Labour if they put the minimum wage up to £8″. Why isn’t it £8/hour? Or indeed £20/hour?

Perhaps this woman was on minimum wage. It’s hardly surprising that someone would turn to a politician for a pay rise when they couldn’t get it from their boss. However, raising the legal minimum wage to £8/hour would certainly have the unintended consequence of lowering this person’s actual wage to £0. Rather than increasing their income, they would become unemployed as a result of such a policy.

On Thursday 6th November 2008, in the annual “No Confidence” debate at the Union, Oliver Letwin was asked, “Why did you vote against the minimum wage?” It didn’t seem to have occurred to the questioner that there could be any good reason for opposing a minimum wage. Mr Letwin replied that he had been responsible for changing Conservative policy on the minimum wage “because we were wrong about it. It turned out not to price people out of jobs the way we thought it would. The reason we were sceptical about it is because we thought it would price people out of jobs… I hope, I trust, that it’s not going to rise to a level where it does that in a recession.”

Mr Letwin is wrong that the minimum wage has not priced people out of jobs. Indeed, now that we are in a recession, it is surely responsible for even more unemployment. The reason the minimum wage is not £8/hour is because that would cause more unemployment. So the choice for a politician when setting the level of the minimum wage is: How much unemployment do you want? Unemployment will never be minimised as long as minimum wage legislation remains in force.

Lowering or abolishing the minimum wage is of increased importance at the moment, because lowering wages is essential to ending recessions.

“It is common and indeed conventional knowledge that only World War II ended the Depression… What is less often acknowledged is that the New Deal as such thus failed to end to the Depression. Nor is it generally understood why the Depression did not return in 1946, after the military was demobilized and war production ended. By all rights, nothing should have been any different from 1939. But the Depression did not return. Despite demobilization and the end of war production, unemployment in 1946 was 3.9% and in 1947 3.9%…

So why didn’t the Depression return in 1946? Because wages were frozen even while the money supply was inflated with the war spending. This drove down real wages, the opposite of the consistent policy of Hoover and Roosevelt for a decade to drive up wages. In 1946, wages were low enough to clear the employment market. If employers could then hire workers at a market wage, and produce consumer goods, business could get back to normal. It did.”

However,

Dave Prentis, general secretary of Unison, will cut a special cake in the Commons to celebrate the anniversary, saying that the current £5.73 an hour rate should increase to £7.45 by October 2010.

The union also wants apprentices to be covered by the minimum wage, adding that the “development rate” for younger workers should be scrapped as it “discriminated” against young people.

As Tim Worstall puts it,

Are these people mad? A 30% pay rise in the middle of a recession? When people are shedding labour left, right and centre, you’re going to make labour more expensive?

The minimum wage is a blunt instrument. Prices are information, and setting prices (including wages) distorts the market, preventing it from solving the economic calculation problem and allocating resources efficiently. Just as we don’t set prices, we shouldn’t set wages.

The minimum wage is unfortunately popular amongst many people that it harms. If you want to redistribute wealth, which is what the minimum wage tries to do, a negative income tax would be a far more effective method.

[un]Fairtrade

Tuesday, March 3rd, 2009

It’s probably a little lazy of me to just post a link. However, I feel quite strongly about Fairtrade being a BAD IDEA and failing to properly address its aims and intentions.

The Adam Smith Institute (ASI) have written a critique of Fairtrade.

Here’s the Executive Summary:

  • Fairtrade Fortnight is a marketing exercise intended to maintain the Fairtrade mark’s predominance in an increasingly competitive marketplace for ethically-branded products. The hype is necessary, because there is every reason for the shrewd consumer to make other choices.
  • Fair trade is unfair. It offers only a very small number of farmers a higher, fixed price for their goods. These higher prices come at the expense of the great majority of farmers, who — unable to qualify for Fairtrade certification — are left even worse off.
  • Most of the farmers helped by Fairtrade are in Mexico, a relatively developed country, and not in places like Ethiopia.
  • Fair trade does not aid economic development. It operates to keep the poor in their place, sustaining uncompetitive farmers on their land and holding back diversification, mechanization, and moves up the value chain. This denies future generations the chance of a better life.
  • Fair trade only helps landowners, not the agricultural labourers who suffer the severest poverty. Indeed, Fairtrade rules deny labourers the opportunity of permanent, full-time employment.
  • Four-fifths of the produce sold by Fairtrade-certified farmers ends up in non-Fairtrade goods. At the same time, it is possible that many goods sold as Fairtrade might not actually be Fairtrade at all.
  • Just 10% of the premium consumers pay for Fairtrade actually goes to the producer. Retailers pocket the rest.
  • The consumer now has a wide variety of ethical alternatives to Fairtrade, many of which represent more effective ways to fight poverty, increase the poor’s standard of living and aid economic development.
  • Fairtrade arose from the coffee crisis of the 1990s. This was not a free market failure. Governments tried to rig the market through the International Coffee Agreement and subsidized over-plantation with the encouragement of well-meaning but misguided aid agencies. The crash in prices was the inevitable result of this government intervention, but coffee prices have largely recovered since then.
  • Free trade is the most effective poverty reduction strategy the world has ever seen. If we really want to aid international development we should abolish barriers to trade in the rich world, and persuade the developing world to do the same. The evidence is clear: fair trade is unfair, but free trade makes you rich.

Economic and historical ignorance

Saturday, February 28th, 2009

George Owers of the Labour Club has an article in this week’s Varsity. I don’t wish to make this ad hominem, but his article is a such farrago of his typical economic and historical ignorance (not to mention rudeness) that I hardly know where to start. How about a good old-fashioned fisking?

Mr Sharpe does not address the fact that if the state had followed his prescriptions over the past two years and left the market to determine the fate of the actors within the world economic system, then it is improbable that there would be a financial sector left by now. When the US government let just one financial institution go bankrupt, namely Lehman Brothers, the resulting panic and market turbulence came close to collapsing the entire financial system. If the market had been allowed to determine the fate of every such troubled institution, the resulting carnage would have been the financial equivalent of a thermonuclear apocalypse.

On the contrary, there would be a financial sector left. Lehman Brothers did not come close to “collapsing the entire financial system”. It is simply not possible for everyone to go bankrupt. Debtors require creditors, and creditors require debtors. The financial sector might be smaller, requiring the dynamic “carnage” or “creative destruction” that any economic restructuring requires. And that would be a good thing. Leftism is essentially a collection of static doctrines, seeking to eliminate all risk, preferring stagnant security to dynamic change. That’s why people like Mr Owers chase after utopias like “full employment” where no one ever loses their job.

The same applies if governments around the world had not re-capitalised the banks (as suggested by Gordon Brown). The state is too enmeshed in economic life to simply withdraw at a stroke without massive consequences. In fact, if anything, only more emergency state action can save us. Most responsible economists realise that the only way to get the banks lending again is to nationalise the entire banking system now.

Crikey, that’s not even close to true. Not even the (actually irresponsible) neo-Keynesians that Owers adores advocate nationalising the banks.

Mr Owers is correct that if all the banks were nationalised they could be forced to start lending again. But that would be A Bad Thing. Indeed, nationalised Northern Rock already have been forced by the government to start lending again. “Chancellor Alistair Darling also suggested that some mortgages would be lent at up to 90% of the value of the property being bought”. That’s on top of the 10% bonuses they just received. And despite falling house prices putting these people at risk of going into negative equity.

Gordon Brown even wants to ban 100% mortgages, though he did once offer them himself through “HomeBuyDirect”. As Guido says, “No deposit was required, and it didn’t matter if you could not afford to repay the full cost of a mortgage for the property. Low-income earners were effectively encouraged by the government to buy over-priced new builds.”

No bank should be forced to lend money. Banks lend money to make a profit, and will do so at an interest rate that takes into account the risk of default. That’s why the government has been unsuccessful in getting to banks to lower interest rates as much as the Bank of England’s rate. The Bank of England’s rate is essentially a number plucked out of thin air, whereas commercial banks have to take into account risk.

Why does Mr Owers want banks to lend more? Because he believes that the economy is driven by spending: by consumption, not production. This is false. On the contrary, real growth is made by producing things. Houses changing hands will not create prosperity out of nothing.

Nationalising the banks would cost the taxpayer even more enormous amounts of money for no good reason. It would simply be a transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich, from the prudent to the imprudent.

Contrary to Mr Sharpe’s assertions, this catastrophe is the result of a dumb faith in the efficient market hypothesis, and only a result of the failure of the state insofar as the state did not act more firmly to prevent such madness.

Contrary to Mr Owers’ assertions, this catastrophe is the result of pervasive government intervention in the market for years. No one believes that markets clear instantly or that people have perfect information. But you don’t have to believe that to believe that the market would be a lot more efficient if we had a market-set interest rate and no central bank able to inflate the currency. Then the interest rate would reflect people’s time-preferences, capital would be allocated more efficiently, and knowledge about the changes in relative prices would not be drowned out in general price increases.

This catastrophe was not caused be a free market, because we didn’t and don’t have one.

Actors in a market are not rational calculating machines able to use data to efficiently determine the optimum allocation of resources. They are often driven by irrational exuberance, which leads to insane speculative bubbles that can destabilise the real economy. Surely that is apparent to everyone by now. The British Conservative Party seems to be just about the only institution in the entire world that attributes the current crisis to too little marketisation rather than too much. Only by state action to regulate economic activity can we manage these risks and prevent periodic financial crises.

The thing is, when speculators are successful, they make the market more efficient. Short-sellers contribute to the market signals which help reduce the price of over-valued things, for example. But when speculators do not help to make the market more efficient, they lose money. The market checks them.

I do not deny that speculation played a part in the recent bubble. But what caused speculation? Bubbles always pop. In a free market, they pop sooner rather than later. What allows bubbles to reach catastrophic proportions? Cheap credit, provided by the government. The solution is to abolish the Bank of England, and go back to a market-set (higher) interest rate. The solution is to prevent the government from fuelling bubbles through inflation. (A low interest rate doesn’t just cause isolated bubbles, such as house prices. It wrecks the whole economy by causing misallocation of resources on a massive scale.)

The regulators didn’t prevent this crisis, and the government encouraged it.

The hard empirical evidence for this truth exists – it’s called the past.

As far as I can tell from speaking to him, Mr Owers’ only knowledge of the Great Depression comes from reading the crypto-socialist John Kenneth Galbraith, and he believes that the Great Depression was caused entirely by speculation. The past doesn’t back him up, though. Before the era of central banking, widespread depressions did not occur, and indeed could not occur.

From 1945 until the 1970s the world had a well-regulated financial system operating within the framework of the Bretton-Woods settlement.

And what happened to Bretton Woods in ‘71? Mr Owers has a curious set of historical blind spots. On the contrary, Bretton Woods was an insane system of price controls, which required governments to pour money into the black hole of maintaining arbitrary exchange rates. A bit like the ERM. It was doomed to failure. It was tested to destruction and eventually collapsed, taking the gold standard with it.

I don’t mean to be rude, but in conversations with Mr Owers and others, it is apparent that he knows no economics. He should go and learn some.

In Defence of Doing Nothing

Saturday, February 21st, 2009

This article originally appeared in Varsity (Issue 691, Friday 20th February 2009).

In Defence of Doing Nothing
Inaction is the best way to deal with this recession

In the 1983 film War Games, the WOPR computer is about deploy the USA’s entire nuclear deterrent to destroy the Soviet Union. However, it is tricked into playing a game of Noughts and Crosses. Eventually the WOPR is forced to conclude that, since two good players have as much chance of beating each other in a game of Noughts and Crosses as in a nuclear war, the best move is to do nothing.

Unfortunately, however, there is always a problem with doing nothing: someone, somewhere, always thinks that something should be done. And so we had the arms race. Inevitably, if there is a perceived crisis and you do nothing about it, you’re accused of being shortsighted, naïve, or even heartless.

Faced with the current economic crisis, the gut reaction has been to throw money at the problem. But, just as the arms race did not alleviate the Cold War, the bail-out has not got the nancial system moving again. Indeed, is it in our interests to prevent the crisis?

The current crisis is necessary in order to correct an overvalued market; and by keeping credit going, the market is going to remain overvalued. Instead of getting out of crisis, this is merely going to prolong it. Besides, liquidity only works if people have the confidence to use the money. Why else has Alistair Darling’s economic bail-out not worked?

Of course, this has not stopped the Labour Party persisting under the delusion that doing something, no matter how ineffective or costly, is innately laudable. The ‘do nothing Tories’ mantra is a common insult. But what is the value of doing something that will not help?

David Cameron and the Conservative Party come from the classical liberal tradition that the market will correct itself and that (most) public intervention within that market will be ineffective at best and damaging at worst.  e Conservative Party is derided for not having any policies. But to let the market run itself is a policy. To become a credible alternative rather than simply an opposition, the Conservative Party needs to construct a narrative against prevailing attitudes.

After all, it can be argued that the only reason that the current crisis has developed is because of government action over the past twenty years or so. It was the government (albeit a Conservative one) that turned building societies into banks. It was the government (albeit an American one) that forced banks to lend to people with no assets and poor credit ratings. And it was the government (a Labour one) acting through the Bank of England that has kept interest rates artificially low for the past decade.

The problem is, however, that it is exceedingly difficult for the Conservative Party to claim that doing nothing with regards to the economic crisis is actually the best course of action. Obviously the Conservative Party does not think that absolutely nothing should be done. It is agreed that the most vulnerable — those likely to fall through the cracks of poverty — need to be protected. But when it comes to keeping credit moving they are less enthusiastic.

In the world of modern politics, doing nothing is not an option. Whatever the problem may be, no matter how small or insignificant, the government is expected to deal with it. What can an MP do about someone who throws a cigarette butt in the park? Should the government really take responsibility for what every parent feeds their child? If an adult prefers to sit at home and watch television rather than going out and exercising, who cares? And yet thousands of words are wasted and gallons of ink spilled dealing with precisely these issues.

The economy is slightly more important. Nevertheless, although the call for inaction may seem heartless, in the current crisis it is not. It will allow the market to recover quickly and efficiently, and allow the government to focus on helping the individuals adversely a affected by the crisis rather than worrying about a global market which is, frankly, too big for it to control. To think that anyone can end boom and bust is ludicrous.

But, then again, the tide is already turning. In the wake of the failure of the first economic bail-out, the Labour Party is increasingly behind in the polls. Indeed, senior Labourites like Tony Blair’s former aide Benjamin Wegg-Prosser are urging Gordon Brown to drop the ‘do nothing Tories’ attack line. It seems that people may, after all, be willing to give doing nothing a try.

Bias in TCS 5

Saturday, February 14th, 2009

Fifth of 8 weekly articles documenting bias in “The Cambridge Student”: Lent 2009 Issue 5.

This week it’s jobs, and economic bias (or perhaps economic ignorance). The Cambridge University Press are to cut 133 jobs. (Confusingly, the article prefers to use the numbers 160 and 170 more often, even though these appear to be overstatements.) The article does not quote anyone in favour of the cuts, and does not even quote the Press itself to justify them. It apparently hasn’t occurred to TCS that any job cuts anywhere could ever be justified.

Without job losses, economic growth would be impossible. Not just hindered, but impossible. Without job losses, living standards would never improve and we’d be stuck in the middle ages, with everyone much poorer. The reason is that the very definition of economic growth — each person becoming more productive — means that firms can do the same work with fewer people, and fewer firms are needed. These people are then available to go into new or expanding sectors. Job losses are scary for those who lose their jobs, while they look for other jobs. But they are essential to allow some sectors to shrink and others to grow as the market adapts itself to the changing desires of consumers. In a recession, this is restructuring is essential.

Cambridge University Press appears to want to leave the printing business altogether, and just be a publishing business. Presumably they believe that printing is not a sector they will be able to remain competitive in. Indeed, printing is one of the most competitive sectors in the world. A CUP employee says “the decision on the printing side is perverse; the Press as a whole is currently operating at a profit.” This is disingenuous: even if the University Press is making a profit overall, its printing section may be making a loss. There is no point throwing away profit to subsidise wasteful jobs, when the profit should be used to support the University of Cambridge.

Why do people feel the need to claim offence on others’ behalf? (It’s rather like claiming to represent people who haven’t asked for it.) There was a rather over-the-top comment by a student in a story about Emmanuel College’s “Empire” May Ball: “Throwing the party in the name of ‘Empire’ will damage the Emmanuel College’s reputation indefinitely and stop people, who have the potential to be here, from applying to Cambridge”! So good on TCS for including the following charming story in an article about “Golliwogs on sale at souvenir shop”: “An African gentleman had come in to collect a Stieff Bear he had ordered, and while he was in the shop a white girl came in and said we should be ashamed for selling the dolls. The man turned round to her and said, ‘it doesn’t offend me; so why should it offend you?’”.

More on the occupation of the law faculty. 56 academics have signed a letter to the Vice Chancellor condemning the University’s response to the protesters. The pull-quote is “The letter describes the occupation as ‘peaceful and dignified’”. Non-violent protest is laudable, but it’s not enough. If some people entered my house to demonstrate against something that had nothing (or very little) to do with me, pointing out that they were non-violent would hardly make it okay. Trespass is trespass. The university did not “deprive” the protesters of food — it merely stopped them taking food into a building that the university owned. The protesters were free to leave and eat elsewhere.

The article mentions “the occupation’s most popular aim, with 74% of students in a poll stating support for disinvesting in the arms trade”. It doesn’t mention their other, unpopular demands (and they were demands, not just aims), and their general unpopularity. Minor criticism of the demonstrators is admitted at the end.

Finally, a hilarious quote from a comment article: “you cannot sell education in a market system. Education is too complex to be priced. Not only does it involve too many different elements and qualities, but it consists of things like truth, falsehood, science, culture, and art. These things cannot be bought and sold in a standard market system, because they cannot be identified as ‘goods’.” Ahahahahaha. What non…sequiturs. Education already is bought and sold. Of course it is not to complex to be priced. Teachers have to earn a living, and charge for their services, as do the writers of books, etc. At the moment most are paid by the state, but there is no reason why they can’t be paid for privately. Indeed, many are. In America, for example, one can get a loan to pay for university education, where the payment is a percentage of all future lifetime earnings. Such schemes are crowded out in the UK by the state.

It is not quite true that “if you try and turn the education system into a market, these things will take on a totally one-dimensional character.” It is true that if university was privately funded, fewer people would study things like philosophy, laudable though they are. For most people, degrees like Management are means to an end, whereas degrees like Philosophy are ends in themselves. If students had to pay for it themselves, most would only choose to do a degree if they thought it would pay for itself through increased earnings. Some would still choose to do more “soft” or “abstract” degrees, for “leisure” purposes. (We pay for leisure.) Probably, fewer people would do degrees overall, and then fewer employers would expect them. And wouldn’t that be more rational?

Finally: Is “journalism by facebook group” the new “journalism by press release”?

More spending is not the answer

Thursday, January 29th, 2009

Sean Gabb on the car industry bailout:

“We are continually told at present - which is somewhat more than usual - how government spending had created, or will create, so many jobs. Therefore, the immense expansion of the British State since 1997 has created three hundred thousand jobs or whatever. Some deplore this because most of those employed can be expected to vote Labour. Hardly anyone denies there has been a net addition to the number of employed. The same reasoning underlies all discussion of how we are to get through the recession on which we have now started.

The truth is, however, that government spending does not so much create as displace employment. Every pound spent by the Government must first be taken from the people, who cannot then spend it for themselves. If the money is taken is taken through taxes, it exactly reduces the ability of the people to spend or invest it for themselves as they wish, or to save it for transfer, via the banking system, for others to spend or invest as they wish. If the money is borrowed, it again exactly reduces the amount of money that the people can borrow to spend or invest.

It is more complex if the money is printed by the Government - or, more likely nowadays, borrowed from the banks in a fractional reserve system. But if its effects are often hard to trace until after the event, inflation is no less a tax than any other means of providing money to governments. It may reduce the actual purchasing power of money left in the hands of the people. Given the downward pressure on manufacturing costs we have seen during the past generation, inflation will at best reduce the potential purchasing power of money that already exists.

This being so, the argument that government spending creates employment relies on a blindness to the concept of opportunity cost - that every pound spent on paying one salary is a pound less to spend on another salary. Put more simply, it is a case of what Bastiat described as “what is seen and what is not seen”. We see the jobs created by the Government in it “regeneration” projects. We do not see the jobs that would otherwise have been created to supply things that people actually would have bought had the money been left in their own pockets.

For the past six months, the argument has been reinforced by the claim that government spending is needed to make up for a disinclination by others to spend or invest. This being so, it will not be a zero sum game, but will create net employment. There is no doubt that there has been a deflation. People are borrowing less and saving more. The banks have been increasing their financial reserves. But it does not follow from this admission that government spending is needed to make up the deficiency. The fall in spending is not the cause of the problems we face, but is a symptom…

What a pity the government have forgotten the lesson of Mrs Thatcher: government, like a household, which cannot go on spending more than it brings in:

Now Mr. President, throughout history clever men—not all of then rascals—but none of them businessmen—have tried to show that the common sense principles of prudent finance don’t really apply to this government or that institution, to this business or to that household. Not so, they always do, and especially to government. In the real world large and persistent government deficits haven’t produced any cornucopia of full employment or rapid growth. On the contrary, we’ve seen country after country with substantial deficits run into serious problems of financial crisis and inflation. And to whom do they then turn? They turn to those countries and institutions who have persevered in prudent policies and just as sound finance is vital for households and government, so also is it the essential principle of international finance.”

Margaret Thatcher quote of the week 1

Thursday, January 22nd, 2009

From the archives…

I visited the Churchill Archives Centre today to take copies of a speech made by Baroness Thatcher to CUCA, on 12th March 1976, when she was Leader of the Opposition.

I have put a transcript of the speech at http://www.cuca.org.uk/1976/03/12/margaret-thatcher-speech-to-cuca/, and copies of Baroness Thatcher’s notes at http://www.cuca.org.uk/images/1976/, with kind permission of Baroness Thatcher, The Margaret Thatcher Foundation and the Churchill Archives Centre.

What Baroness Thatcher had to say is relevant today.

More borrowing at home would take us still nearer national stagnation and bankruptcy.

And under Socialism, Britain’s credit overseas is hardly good.

Indeed, if the declining rate of the £ is anything to go by, it is disastrous.

His is a dying Government, creating only uncertainty and confusion, living on borrowed time and borrowed money.

We can visualise the sort of demands our overseas creditors will place on the Government in return for shoring up our economy.

Are we going to witness a battle between our overseas creditors, demanding crisis action to safequard their money; and the Left trying to force the Government down the spending road to ruin.

It is a battle which we cannot afford. The Prime Minister must put the country first.

He has heard what the electors of the Wirral and Carshalton have said. They have shouted with a mighty voice. He has failed them, as he has failed the Nation.

He must go—and go now. [applause]

What is Capitalism for?

Monday, January 19th, 2009

by Hugh Burling

The other night I was accused of being a Socialist. In conversation I had pursued the claim that it would be a good idea to encourage ordinary people and high-street banks to make lower-risk investments, such that there would be less risk overall in the system, and that slower growth was a fair price to pay for a steadier market. I made no reference to legal compulsion at any stage. As I understand it, the high-risk investment strategies that were until recently so widespread became so partly due to the popular demand for them. That is, ordinary people wanted higher and higher returns on their savings accounts and their small-scale investments, alongside lower and lower interest charged them on their use of credit cards and borrowing. To meet these demands, win more customers and stay ahead in the finance market, banks (investment, lending and otherwise) encouraged their employees to engage in more sophisticated and risky practices. Some thing or things went wrong and the cards slipped. I beg forgiveness for my primitive understanding and exposition of our financial markets and crisis: I think my comments below will make clear why I don’t take as much interest as some in the minutiae of the operation of our collective greed.

At any rate, the conversation was reduced to the question being asked of me: “Imagining that you trusted the borrower so implicitly that the ‘risk’ of a loan could only be judged as ‘zero’, what would you consider a fair rate of return, when you leant someone your money?”

Once upon a time, the moral engines of our society condemned usury, the lending of money for the lender’s profit. The consequence was the emergence of a complex system of gifting and deviously-worded insurance deals based on bartering. I am no expert on the financial operations of the Knights Templars but I strongly suspect that even their feudal wheelings and dealings were much simpler than usury has become since it was made legal for the majority of the population. We have always had markets and capital. At least, they both seem to go back a long way (see Sean Gabb’s “Market Behaviour in the Ancient World: An Overview of the Debate” (also available as a pdf). Wanting to make a profit from helping other people is probably ‘innate’ to human economic behaviour – at least it is so common that the desire needs to be factored into considering how to motivate people to help each other.

Indeed, the beauty of Capital‘ism’ is that it reveals how a selfish motivation can benefit others. But that beauty does not stem from the selfishness of the motivation. Intellectually (rather than historically or emotionally), we support financial markets because of three truisms: (1) “many people act out of selfish motivations more readily than out of altruistic ones”, (2) “borrowing money is a very efficient way for an individual to be able to begin new enterprises and hence develop new technology, provide more services, and a variety of other things we like to have” and (3) “many incidences of borrowing and lending must occur in order to have all the things we like produced or provided”. Because so many ‘lending transactions’ - the term ‘investment’ assumes that the transaction has a selfish motivation - must be carried out, we need to take account of the selfish motivations of the aforesaid many people. Also because selfish motivations are so popular, we do not expect a majority of entrepreneurs, inventors, artists and so forth to make a living on the feudal basis of patronage (in which they suffered perpetual disadvantage). So what we do is to try and facilitate selfishly motivated lending.

The problem arises when that facilitation changes to expectation, then reliance and finally the inability to imagine that people do, sometimes, want to help other people for reasons other than financial gain, and that alternative motivations are ultimately better, if rarer. This inability leads to a twisting of the truisms. The selfish ‘many’ changes to ‘all’, and usury becomes, in the mind of the public, the only means towards growth rather than merely a very efficient one.

To end the suspense, the answer I gave to the question was “nothing”. If one could spare the money, and one sufficiently trusted the borrower to return it to one before one needed it, there would be no point in one asking for interest. Nothing would have been lost. Of course, the lender would have gained nothing either. My accuser was flabbergasted at the idea of performing a transaction without the aim of capital gain, hence his accusation.

When we advocate a free market, extol the virtues of honest trade and applaud the system which makes the best of our too-often selfish instincts, we must never forget that a compromise is all capitalism is: a compromise with our greed. It is not an ideology, it cannot provide a goal and we should not allow its mathematical doctrines to persuade us that all humans are only ever selfish, simply because we have a clever system for working with the many of us who often are. In short, capitalism is not an ism like the isms that suffix its opponent theories. It is a perpetual jury-rig, not because we once had some pristine, more efficient system or are likely to manufacture a new one, but because we’re basically not good enough to build a proper mast ourselves.