Alan Mak
Peterhouse
September 2004

Alan Mak argues that George W Bush deserves a second term despite his many flaws and that his chances of victory in November should not be written off.

Pundits are still misunderestimating him. As I watch George W Bush deliver his acceptance speech to rapturous applause at the Republican National Convention in New York’s Madison Square Garden, many commentators are already dismissing the Texas pretzel-muncher’s chances of victory in November’s presidential election. There are certainly good reasons for their scepticism. Having promised to unite the country after the election fiasco of 2000, Bush has proved the most divisive and despised American leader of modern times, both at home and abroad. The quagmire in Iraq deepens by the day, over 1000 US personnel have died and the cost of the war has just exceeded $200bn. Bush is the first President since Herbert Hoover to see net employment fall during his watch, and his regressive tax cuts have turned the record budget surplus inherited from Clinton into the largest deficit in American history at $422bn (£235bn). The economy is stagnating, oil prices are rising, and Bush’s opponent is an articulate Vietnam veteran with over 20 years Senate experience. That some of Bush’s previous attempts to speak coherent English have led him to declare that “I know the human being and the fish can coexist peacefully” and that “families is where our nation finds hope, where wings take dream” hardly bode well for the presidential debates. Nevertheless, as Bush leaves New York and resumes his “Heart and Soul of America” campaign tour of key swing states, he finds himself opening up a double-digit lead over the vacillating and bewildered Kerry. And deservedly so.

Fighting the War on Terror

Bush has offered America strong and decisive leadership in times of great upheaval. As Commander-In-Chief he has been uncompromising in his determination to defend America at home and spread liberty abroad. Addressing Congress shortly after 9/11, Bush declared “…we are a country awakened to danger and called to defend freedom. Our grief has turned to anger and anger to resolution. Whether we bring our enemies to justice or bring justice to our enemies, justice will be done.” Easy rhetoric was matched by decisive action. Bush created the Department of Homeland Security to co-ordinate anti-terrorist efforts at home, he passed the USA Patriot Act to give law enforcement agencies greater powers, he reformed and refocused the CIA and FBI, and increased funding for national security by $18bn. Afghanistan has been liberated from the Taliban, 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed is behind bars, and Libya has voluntarily and peacefully dismantled its weapons programme. Bush has matched words with actions, and outlaw regimes throughout the world took note: America meant business. “The advance of human freedom… now depends on us. Our nation will lift a dark threat of violence from our people and our future. In our grief and anger we have found our mission and our moment. We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail.” Bush has been as good as his word.

Kerry - a Flip Flopper

Bush’s strong and steady leadership has won hearts and minds in the key swing states where November’s election will be decided. Bush has also succeeded in portraying Kerry as an indecisive “flip-flopper”, especially on Iraq. Despite Bush’s many shortcomings, Kerry is proving a weak opponent. His stump speeches are lacklustre, his body language defensive, he never says in 10 words what can be said in 30, and his 20-year Senate voting record is being used against him. Kerry’s low-octane, nuanced policy positions have provided masses of material for Bush’s 30-second attack ads. Vote against any type of military spending, even a chemical toilet in a far-flung base and any senator running for President can expect to be labelled as soft on defence. Say that the issue are more complicated than that and you will be labelled a flip-flopper. Senators like Kerry just can’t win.

Iraq will prove a decisive issue in November’s election. Voters expect consistency. The only thing consistent about Kerry’s position on Iraq is his inconsistency. He voted to give the President the authority to invade Iraq (because he feared an easy victory in Iraq); then he voted against the $87bn Congressional aid package to fund the war (because he was fighting left-wing anti-war firebrand Howard Dean in the Democrat primaries); then he voted for the $87bn package (after he had defeated Dean) to appease Middle America. At a campaign rally, Kerry declared proudly that “I actually voted for the $87bn before I voted against it” There was no better gift to Karl Rove, Bush’s chief strategist. Furthermore, Kerry’s campaign hawkishness sits uneasily with is long record of dovishness. He famously opposed the Vietnam War by throwing his ribbons (but not the actual medals) onto the steps of Congress; he opposed every Reagan military intervention in the 1980s; he opposed the first Gulf War and has consistently voted against spending intelligence and weapons systems. By cheesily “reporting for duty” at the Democratic National Convention Kerry placed his Vietnam record at the centre of his campaign, inviting highly damaging accusations from the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth that he exaggerated his injuries. Bush might yet have a chance in November if he can continue to successfully characterise Kerry as a wonkey donkey.

Florida & Nader

If Kerry’s vacillation doesn’t secure victory for Bush, the great state of Florida might. Again. In the wake of Hurricanes Frances, Ivan and Jeanne, Bush has visited Florida regularly, armed with a government chequebook to comfort victims (and voters) accompanied by his brother Governor Jeb Bush. Whilst Kerry has had to stay away for fear of being accused of electioneering at a time of disaster, Bush has played the compassionate President to a tee. Kerry’s chances are further damaged by the fact that Theresa LaPore, the calamitously incompetent election supervisor in Palm Beach County is still in post. She chose the notorious “butterfly ballot” which caused mayhem in 2000 and ordered her staff to take the weekend off for Thanksgiving with the final deadline for chad inspections merely 72 hours away. Consequently, Palm Beach failed to complete its manual recount on time and the whole process - which turned up an extra 180 votes for Gore - was rendered void. LePore has just authorised the purchase of a new $14.4m touch-screen voting system called Sequoia that does not produce a paper trail. First tried in Riverside County, Los Angeles earlier this year, Sequoia was a disaster. 2,000 black voters in Florida also found they were no longer on voter rolls. Kerry’s problems don’t end here. The Florida Supreme Court has just approved Ralph Nader’s application to run in Florida as the Reform Party’s candidate. It doesn’t look good for Kerry in Florida.

Women Like Bush.

Men have always liked Bush. Now more and more women do too. Bush had an 11% lead over Gore amongst male voters in 2001, but Gore lead Bush by 30% amongst women. Bush’s strong stance on terror means he is likely to hold on to his lead amongst men, but a recent CNN poll has Bush and Kerry neck and neck amongst women in 2004, which spells disaster for Kerry. After “angry white men” (1994), “soccer moms” (1996) and “NASCAR dads” (2003), Bush is now courting both “security moms” - married suburban women concerned about national security - and “Sex and the City” voters, single, professional women who live in urban areas. Despite his strong opposition to abortion and sex education in schools, if Bush can maintain his current Clinton-like appeal to women (at the ballot box), he may be able to close the gender gap by November.

It’s the Electoral College, stupid.

Democrats are angry about 2000 and they are predicted to turnout in record numbers. Nevertheless, Bush could lose the popular vote yet secure more state-by-state Electoral College votes - as he did in 2000 - and win a second term. Kerry is trailing in key swings states such as Minnesota (which last went Republican in 1972), Wisconsin (where Kerry mispronounced Lambeau Field, the home of the Green Bay Packers, in a football-mad state) and Ohio (where thousands of manufacturing jobs have disappeared under Bush). Kerry will clean up solid Democrat states such as California and New York, but he needs the electorally rich swing states to secure victory.

America’s election. America’s President.

52% of the world may prefer Kerry as President, but thankfully they can’t vote. This is an American election for an American president. Despite his faults - and there are many - Bush’s compassionate conservative, small-town values are resonating with Middle America. Awkward and inarticulate in Washington, Bush is relaxed and charismatic when addressing smaller crowds in town halls across America. Kerry said the heart and soul of America is in Hollywood. Wrong. America remains a conservative god-fearing nation. It is small towns such as Wheeling, West Virginia that will decide this election, and Bush is the candidate most in tune with their values and aspirations. Strong on defence, resolute against terrorists, an ardent supporter of marriage and a regular churchgoer, Bush ticks all the right boxes. When delivering speeches crafted in short, punchy sentences to suit his West Texas twang, Bush is a formidable campaigner. He may mangle his English, but at least Bush is one of them.

Four More Years

Since 9/11, President Bush has provided strong and steady leadership. He has sent a clear message to terrorists and outlaw regimes around the world that democracy and liberty will not be defeated by fear and terror. Libya got the message. So did the Taliban and Saddam Hussein. Kerry may suggest Saddam was never a direct threat to America - or the rest of the world. But, if Hitler had not been a direct threat to Britain’s national security, would we as a civilised nation, have stood idly by and allowed him to exterminate Europe’s Jews?

To prevent tragedy at home, we must defeat terror abroad. Despite international opposition, Bush has refused to give the UN or any other nation a veto on America’s national security. He has fulfilled his duty as Commander-in-Chief to protect the American people. However, Bush is not home and dry. Kerry is famed for being a strong finisher, and with his encyclopaedic knowledge of policy issues and superior debating skills, he is sure to bounce back in the upcoming Presidential debates. But, Bush shouldn’t be written off just yet. In fact, he deserves four more years.